Fifa International · resolved market
Will Switzerland beat Serbia?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8d1d1f5fc0c87f2b3206c406dd6b149798867e62fb0703a8a25bf2d96ebff13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Yes | 39c | 34,548$13,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,423.93 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed No | 61c | 20,000$12,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,900 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 65c | 5,000$3,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750 | 168 | 35.1%59 W · 109 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 39c | 762.82$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 138 | 26.1%36 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked Yes | 39c | 498.95$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Yes | 41c | 365.85$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 37c | 268.27$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.26 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3d…ad08backed No | 63c | 268.25$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 10c | 221.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +13.7wins | +0.27per pick | 22cpaid | +416.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e2…3a76backed Yes | 29c | 197.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ff…b701backed Yes | 41c | 122.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…a171backed Yes | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…797fbacked Yes | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1,075 | 45.2%486 W · 589 L | +41.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e21…4d75backed Yes | 41c | 93.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 59c | 70.46$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 62c | 49.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c05…fc5ebacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…756abacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…5b74backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…1962backed No | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Yes | 34c | 37.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 32cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…1d4dbacked Yes | 35c | 37.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bd…657bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4630…a058backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Switzerland beat Serbia? this page
- Will Serbia beat Switzerland? Yes won
- Will the match between Serbia and Switzerland end in a draw? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.