Token Launches · resolved market
Will StandX launch a token in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0bbb380eb9601d394236be4fd7513d7d68b21e3a33937b42664223edb487396
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4223…751bbacked Yes | 14c | 3,829$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78cf…9e53backed Yes | 14c | 3,601$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc9…70c1backed Yes | 14c | 3,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,166$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 2c | 799.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…8e90backed Yes | 18c | 599.98$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a1…7486backed Yes | 6c | 596.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 17c | 515.7$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.16 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +166%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 13c | 499.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96fe…2b6dbacked Yes | 17c | 408.59$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.53 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 37cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 15c | 300.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 76 | 21.1%16 W · 60 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…68b6backed Yes | 15c | 189.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 13c | 160$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…1720backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8c…b507backed Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70d3…b082backed Yes | 16c | 146.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…034cbacked Yes | 20c | 104.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x145b…7ca4backed Yes | 17c | 102.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -80%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8baa…f431backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9244…4b6ebacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d44…966fbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9586…411abacked Yes | 15c | 91.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa534…c760backed Yes | 15c | 89.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…b76cbacked Yes | 20c | 71.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 19c | 59.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…9038backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will StandX launch a token in 2025?this page
- Will StandX launch a token by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.