Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Mercer Bears vs. Samford Bulldogs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1e1ca2afffabf9fd24d375dfedb4e76224ba910527965b16fdf9b2fb8bba665
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Samford Bulldogsof Mercer Bears, Samford Bulldogs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Mercer Bears | 28c | 1,014$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.51 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Mercer Bears | 51c | 602.25$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.6 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Samford Bulldogs | 49c | 582.94$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.05 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Samford Bulldogs | 51c | 486$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.77 | 605 | 48.9%296 W · 309 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Samford Bulldogs | 67c | 473.88$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.93 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Mercer Bears | 15c | 329.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Samford Bulldogs | 76c | 315.85$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.16 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Mercer Bears | 18c | 280$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 383 | 45.4%174 W · 209 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Mercer Bears | 55c | 254.55$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 453 | 51.4%233 W · 220 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e5…9401backed Mercer Bears | 20c | 253.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Mercer Bears | 23c | 238$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.74 | 441 | 46.5%205 W · 236 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Samford Bulldogs | 51c | 196.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.21 | 130 | 52.3%68 W · 62 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Mercer Bears | 49c | 161.25$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.01 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Mercer Bears | 7c | 154.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Mercer Bears | 54c | 111.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198c…6a94backed Samford Bulldogs | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 188 | 46.8%88 W · 100 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Samford Bulldogs | 75c | 100.43$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Samford Bulldogs | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 188 | 51.6%97 W · 91 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Samford Bulldogs | 53c | 85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Mercer Bears | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 682 | 54.3%370 W · 312 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mercer Bears | 50c | 61.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Samford Bulldogs | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…d1e7backed Mercer Bears | 51c | 51.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 182 | 30.8%56 W · 126 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3a…e1f0backed Mercer Bears | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 268 | 48.1%129 W · 139 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…6769backed Samford Bulldogs | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 179 | 50.8%91 W · 88 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4324…1390backed Mercer Bears | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Mercer Bears | 54c | 29.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 390 | 50.5%197 W · 193 L | -34.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Samford Bulldogs | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x085d…5302backed Mercer Bears | 54c | 23.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8f…1f83backed Samford Bulldogs | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 646 | 58.8%380 W · 266 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Samford Bulldogs | 80c | 18.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 870 | 47.2%411 W · 459 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mercer Bears vs. Samford Bulldogsthis page
- Mercer Bears vs. Samford Bulldogs: O/U 161.5Under won
- Mercer Bears vs. Samford Bulldogs: O/U 162.5Under won
- Spread: Mercer Bears (-1.5)Samford Bulldogs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.