MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1f179c97988b3b193dfc67a3dd05b047ec658dd07b3a5a2f16d70093b988721
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Tampa Bay Rays, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Minnesota Twins | 78c | 733$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.21 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Tampa Bay Rays | 15c | 469.54$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.43 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 317.53$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.48 | 201 | 38.8%78 W · 123 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Minnesota Twins | 65c | 120.49$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.17 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 93.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 93.43$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 76.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 74.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 33.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Minnesota Twins | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 326 | 47.9%156 W · 170 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Minnesota Twins | 65c | 21.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 20.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.