MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x090128db3e98a78f981ae37ebffbbd03cbbcd456dc373839fa371b414e9a79de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,218
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,218 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6308…5d18backed Over | 51c | 101,126$51,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,551.72 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 47cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 49c | 98,000$48,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,019.96 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 10,205$4,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,998.46 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 4,330$2,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,127.81 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 3,295$1,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,614.37 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Under | 51c | 2,290$1,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164.62 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 51c | 1,359$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.86 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 49c | 1,353$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.71 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 49c | 957.13$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.99 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 51c | 633.73$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.53 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 51c | 633.73$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.53 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 48c | 579.33$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.25 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 51c | 550.56$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.78 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 78c | 482.8$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.89 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 50c | 398.59$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.81 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over | 51c | 380.63$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.51 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…6adbbacked Over | 52c | 298.83$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.44 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…85edbacked Over | 51c | 213.53$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.63 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…d9f3backed Over | 51c | 194.12$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.12 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 49c | 189.56$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.88 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 51c | 160.17$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.97 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Over | 51c | 126.18$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.83 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Over | 72c | 124.09$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 13c | 108$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 12c | 105.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b2…2e80backed Over | 52c | 92.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 17c | 85.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 39c | 79.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 51c | 78.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 51c | 78.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…3552backed Under | 26c | 62.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 49c | 60.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…6610backed Over | 74c | 59.13$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee5b…dac8backed Over | 67c | 51.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc01d…2e79backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…0b17backed Under | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 49c | 48.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 307 | 50.2%154 W · 153 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Over | 52c | 46.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 51c | 46.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 49c | 44.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 51c | 36.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 78c | 35.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Over | 67c | 32.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2d…d7f8backed Under | 50c | 32.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbc32…32f8backed Over | 52c | 31.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd650…8d74backed Over | 75c | 30.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Over | 73c | 29.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x104b…ed6bbacked Under | 50c | 24.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Over | 51c | 22.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd364…5115backed Over | 52c | 21.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f6…8333backed Over | 55c | 21.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 49c | 21.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Over | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa002…24eebacked Over | 52c | 19.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd074…5a54backed Over | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 162 | 56.2%91 W · 71 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.