MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97d32dfda859a1d391dc0e294991ce6a7689906234c5a21d028cedeb1bf0e471
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6308…5d18backed Over | 44c | 67,886$29,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,016.38 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 47cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 56c | 55,000$30,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,800 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 56c | 9,229$5,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,155.02 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 55c | 3,180$1,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,738.24 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 56c | 1,383$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.36 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…311cbacked Over | 43c | 1,165$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.03 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 56c | 1,111$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.15 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 56c | 989.9$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.34 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 53c | 758.9$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.12 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 67c | 699.45$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.15 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 43c | 676.06$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.35 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Under | 57c | 645.66$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.03 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 35c | 527.15$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.85 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 56c | 344.45$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.89 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 74c | 217.24$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.37 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 57c | 165.82$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.52 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 57c | 165.82$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.52 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 57c | 165.82$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.52 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 57c | 165.82$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.52 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 75c | 120.03$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 56c | 117.48$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.79 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 28c | 83.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 56c | 79.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 63c | 78.22$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Under | 56c | 76.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2787…ed8dbacked Under | 67c | 73.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +37%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 57c | 70.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd650…8d74backed Over | 70c | 65.81$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Under | 47c | 61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…5ab3backed Under | 41c | 59.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Over | 44c | 54.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 45c | 49.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa002…24eebacked Over | 44c | 45.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…298bbacked Over | 44c | 43.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb377…2cc0backed Under | 57c | 42.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 42c | 42.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 56c | 42.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Over | 43c | 35.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Over | 79c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 43c | 29.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…3552backed Under | 53c | 29.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…6c9bbacked Under | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 56c | 25.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f6…8333backed Over | 56c | 23.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…b909backed Under | 57c | 19.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.