Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-02-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa216a3269fd91c7973cc1db7e61e57278a034535a3f8f6739d5514339ef3ff7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.92 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 61c | 2,739$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.76 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 55c | 1,063$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.52 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 45c | 691.53$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1d…820cbacked No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 76cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 64c | 300.72$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.59 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 78c | 290$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes | 15c | 267.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 96 | 21.9%21 W · 75 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 54c | 166.23$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.17 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…ea03backed Yes | 19c | 133.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 55c | 121$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 45c | 120$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed No | 56c | 89.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 22c | 74.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 45c | 68.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 76c | 57.36$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Yes | 31c | 54.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 45c | 44.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed No | 55c | 43.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 38c | 35.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 62c | 35.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 117 | 62.4%73 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 57c | 18.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-02-15?this page
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld end in a draw?No won
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-02-15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.