Bundesliga · resolved market
Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-02-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc5f35aa7547bf970b8b4881c148c73dbfe66b74629f8ef8749fda1628c14da4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 20c | 6,899$1,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,357.35 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 72c | 866.18$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.54 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 78c | 649.18$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.72 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 64c | 449.15$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.55 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1c…5c3dbacked Yes | 58c | 310.57$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked No | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked No | 41c | 260.46$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.79 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 18c | 221.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…4731backed No | 39c | 200.32$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 35c | 162.08$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Yes | 63c | 158.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.89 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11e1…4cc0backed Yes | 64c | 156.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Yes | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57be…5bb4backed No | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +150.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef8c…ee73backed No | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +149.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Yes | 68c | 105$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbf…f4e6backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9135…a63ebacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7bc3backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x766c…fd5bbacked No | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 70c | 74.66$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed No | 71c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 70c | 67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 70c | 64.03$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed No | 34c | 63.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Yes | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 69cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked No | 51c | 39.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 38c | 38.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 38c | 34.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46ea…225bbacked Yes | 65c | 30.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff2…b6ecbacked Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe579…ba5ebacked Yes | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Yes | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1b…4b36backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-02-15?this page
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld end in a draw?No won
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-02-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.