Tennis · resolved market
US Open, Qualification WTA: Francesca Jones vs Nuria Brancaccio
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa236217566fc057f54f8b2d5a096cee473ca6a47f27f738113db30dba51d099b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Francesca Jonesof Francesca Jones, Nuria Brancaccio
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Nuria Brancaccio | 17c | 4,237$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.12 | 2,521 | 38.4%969 W · 1,552 L | +93.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Nuria Brancaccio | 5c | 4,069$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.92 | 4,341 | 52.3%2,271 W · 2,070 L | +63.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49e0…9af1backed Francesca Jones | 78c | 2,449$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529 | 117 | 66.7%78 W · 39 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Nuria Brancaccio | 24c | 1,052$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.01 | 199 | 48.7%97 W · 102 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Nuria Brancaccio | 18c | 827.47$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.95 | 364 | 34.3%125 W · 239 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a99…d29fbacked Nuria Brancaccio | 9c | 822.22$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 312 | 42.3%132 W · 180 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Nuria Brancaccio | 21c | 755.22$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.6 | 1,754 | 49.1%862 W · 892 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Francesca Jones | 76c | 600.84$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.2 | 860 | 50.1%431 W · 429 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Nuria Brancaccio | 5c | 545.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 2,839 | 47.2%1,340 W · 1,499 L | +38.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Nuria Brancaccio | 10c | 424.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 2,069 | 46.7%966 W · 1,103 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa1…2c8abacked Nuria Brancaccio | 15c | 332.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Nuria Brancaccio | 5c | 313.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Nuria Brancaccio | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2,275 | 42.7%972 W · 1,303 L | +33.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Nuria Brancaccio | 23c | 211.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 1,702 | 48.3%822 W · 880 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…da75backed Francesca Jones | 77c | 188.65$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 416 | 64.4%268 W · 148 L | +22.3wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Nuria Brancaccio | 21c | 186.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5,325 | 28.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L | -21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Nuria Brancaccio | 10c | 180.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1,745 | 48.1%840 W · 905 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f6…2e01backed Francesca Jones | 76c | 140.29$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012d…9db6backed Francesca Jones | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 855 | 68.3%584 W · 271 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Nuria Brancaccio | 18c | 73.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 346 | 48.3%167 W · 179 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Francesca Jones | 80c | 65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 457 | 52.7%241 W · 216 L | +11.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Francesca Jones | 78c | 60.22$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 5,009 | 41.4%2,075 W · 2,934 L | -82.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9527…f108backed Francesca Jones | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 535 | 39.3%210 W · 325 L | +37.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Francesca Jones | 76c | 47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 539 | 46.9%253 W · 286 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Nuria Brancaccio | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 2,528 | 36.2%914 W · 1,614 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Francesca Jones | 77c | 42.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 208 | 66.3%138 W · 70 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Francesca Jones | 77c | 31.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 95 | 64.2%61 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Francesca Jones | 76c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 790 | 62.2%491 W · 299 L | +25.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa678…dd59backed Francesca Jones | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 157 | 44.6%70 W · 87 L | -11.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1039…2914backed Francesca Jones | 78c | 19.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 289 | 64.4%186 W · 103 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.