Lol · resolved market
LoL: NightBirds vs Los Heretics - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa24b544400b10718b6d2ab597264ac896babaf39d96671173c173d9e67d1a22f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Hereticsof NightBirds, Los Heretics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,282 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88b9…0fc9backed NightBirds | 27c | 6,000$1,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,643.58 | 348 | 37.4%130 W · 218 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…af18backed NightBirds | 2c | 5,221$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.74 | 377 | 5.6%21 W · 356 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Los Heretics | 73c | 3,057$2,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.68 | 183 | 50.8%93 W · 90 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Los Heretics | 74c | 2,486$1,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.13 | 392 | 46.4%182 W · 210 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e15…7ec8backed Los Heretics | 78c | 1,433$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.41 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked NightBirds | 22c | 1,028$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.26 | 2,406 | 42.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L | +21.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Los Heretics | 75c | 473.43$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.52 | 697 | 56.5%394 W · 303 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…31d6backed NightBirds | 8c | 384.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 696 | 42.4%295 W · 401 L | +16.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc33…aa3ebacked NightBirds | 26c | 232.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.58 | 402 | 37.8%152 W · 250 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Los Heretics | 72c | 213.8$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.01 | 2,521 | 47.3%1,193 W · 1,328 L | -34.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…13e5backed NightBirds | 28c | 144.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 232 | 40.5%94 W · 138 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked NightBirds | 28c | 120.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Los Heretics | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 447 | 43.6%195 W · 252 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked NightBirds | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 613 | 43.6%267 W · 346 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Los Heretics | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 2,707 | 35.9%972 W · 1,735 L | -152.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Los Heretics | 74c | 20.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 1,310 | 37.3%489 W · 821 L | -86.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d18…3d29backed Los Heretics | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 248 | 45.2%112 W · 136 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: NightBirds vs Los Heretics - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs NightBirds (+1.5)Los Heretics won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: NightBirds vs Los Heretics (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group 3Los Heretics won
- LoL: NightBirds vs Los Heretics - Game 1 WinnerLos Heretics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.