Lol · resolved market
LoL: NightBirds vs Los Heretics - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35c07991f97946c57e86f8783206ec8580603a5b55028121d51a8f710bb7a7f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Hereticsof NightBirds, Los Heretics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,014 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04bd…39a0backed Los Heretics | 24c | 8,484$2,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,448.17 | 1,229 | 45.1%554 W · 675 L | +48.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Los Heretics | 37c | 6,462$2,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,060.04 | 759 | 42%319 W · 440 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e9…cb1bbacked Los Heretics | 28c | 5,256$1,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,804.37 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6eb…bc82backed Los Heretics | 1c | 4,000$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,950 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +195%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2590…e38ebacked Los Heretics | 2c | 3,000$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,930 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +127.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed NightBirds | 3c | 2,757$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.54 | 3,131 | 33.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L | -150.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x910d…cfc0backed Los Heretics | 43c | 2,613$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,485.12 | 184 | 51.6%95 W · 89 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66f0…923bbacked Los Heretics | 4c | 2,500$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,411 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +836.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef0…f14cbacked Los Heretics | 4c | 2,500$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,411 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +451.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed NightBirds | 46c | 2,136$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.24 | 697 | 56.5%394 W · 303 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…7300backed Los Heretics | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 2cpaid | +837.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5886…fe3bbacked Los Heretics | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.25per pick | 3cpaid | +709.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…ab25backed NightBirds | 18c | 1,800$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.04 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141f…7711backed Los Heretics | 78c | 1,622$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.34 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf163…ca34backed Los Heretics | 35c | 1,570$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.82 | 1,477 | 48.3%713 W · 764 L | +45.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…8f93backed Los Heretics | 2c | 1,400$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,368 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +149.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed NightBirds | 64c | 1,276$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.18 | 483 | 53.4%258 W · 225 L | -19.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3a…5c97backed Los Heretics | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +6.1wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +207.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Los Heretics | 53c | 808.75$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.21 | 392 | 39%153 W · 239 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e15…7ec8backed Los Heretics | 80c | 729.6$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.58 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf06…c9ffbacked Los Heretics | 80c | 693.59$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.97 | 633 | 52%329 W · 304 L | +39.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…2fe4backed NightBirds | 56c | 667.71$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.03 | 566 | 50%283 W · 283 L | -14.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked NightBirds | 20c | 666.17$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.58 | 2,406 | 42.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L | +21.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf201…527ebacked Los Heretics | 51c | 611.49$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.71 | 1,295 | 45.1%584 W · 711 L | +49.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked Los Heretics | 4c | 400$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.67 | 113 | 16.8%19 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Los Heretics | 53c | 307.24$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.29 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…1135backed Los Heretics | 52c | 303.84$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.66 | 440 | 42%185 W · 255 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb11…66cbbacked Los Heretics | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 1,019 | 55.8%569 W · 450 L | +22.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed NightBirds | 27c | 268.1$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.41 | 2,495 | 47.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd49d…f05cbacked Los Heretics | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Los Heretics | 72c | 206.52$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.83 | 242 | 35.5%86 W · 156 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…13e5backed NightBirds | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 232 | 40.5%94 W · 138 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x675a…81c2backed Los Heretics | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.1 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed NightBirds | 10c | 186.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 1,924 | 35.9%691 W · 1,233 L | -97.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked NightBirds | 22c | 167.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d0…5ea8backed NightBirds | 63c | 158.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | +14.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Los Heretics | 40c | 143.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.39 | 205 | 50.2%103 W · 102 L | +15.4wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69b7…ae1dbacked NightBirds | 56c | 127.84$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.57 | 257 | 64.2%165 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked NightBirds | 24c | 105$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 611 | 43.5%266 W · 345 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed NightBirds | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 744 | 62.2%463 W · 281 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…1483backed Los Heretics | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 301 | 55.5%167 W · 134 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Los Heretics | 76c | 81.16$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 183 | 50.8%93 W · 90 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df2…d357backed NightBirds | 78c | 77.87$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.74 | 409 | 59.2%242 W · 167 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed NightBirds | 23c | 67.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 106 | 38.7%41 W · 65 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Los Heretics | 42c | 61.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +24.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…e21dbacked Los Heretics | 69c | 59.92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 997 | 47.1%470 W · 527 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x199b…354ebacked Los Heretics | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca6…3841backed NightBirds | 29c | 57.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked NightBirds | 32c | 49.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Los Heretics | 52c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 669 | 47.8%320 W · 349 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked NightBirds | 38c | 39.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Los Heretics | 78c | 35.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 1,270 | 57%724 W · 546 L | +45.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c1…d9febacked Los Heretics | 63c | 34.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3a…f788backed NightBirds | 33c | 32.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 78 | 37.2%29 W · 49 L | -9.9wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Los Heretics | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Los Heretics | 78c | 25.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 1,543 | 54.8%845 W · 698 L | +75.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb51f…b7dbbacked Los Heretics | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f80…e222backed Los Heretics | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: NightBirds vs Los Heretics - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs NightBirds (+1.5)Los Heretics won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: NightBirds vs Los Heretics (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group 3Los Heretics won
- LoL: NightBirds vs Los Heretics - Game 2 WinnerLos Heretics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.