Lol · resolved market
LoL: NightBirds vs Los Heretics (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group 3
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34f3cab6e4fad634a99af29080db5fe4e17a685b8eaffc53dad8899ed079bc2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Hereticsof NightBirds, Los Heretics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,141 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe308…25cdbacked NightBirds | 16c | 10,197$1,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,631.51 | 664 | 37.2%247 W · 417 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed NightBirds | 15c | 10,000$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7db…ee3ebacked NightBirds | 16c | 7,088$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,133.41 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed NightBirds | 14c | 4,250$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595 | 1,468 | 28.9%424 W · 1,044 L | +23.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked NightBirds | 14c | 3,312$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.62 | 175 | 37.1%65 W · 110 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ee…45cebacked NightBirds | 16c | 1,883$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.25 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked NightBirds | 15c | 1,811$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.32 | 1,224 | 48.3%591 W · 633 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed NightBirds | 15c | 1,606$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.86 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed NightBirds | 14c | 1,416$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.22 | 2,156 | 53.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e6…b9f9backed NightBirds | 11c | 1,275$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.46 | 627 | 43.9%275 W · 352 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60f0…a9e5backed NightBirds | 14c | 1,213$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b9…65a5backed NightBirds | 14c | 1,008$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x498c…42bfbacked NightBirds | 17c | 890.77$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.23 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…7e61backed NightBirds | 13c | 679.8$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.37 | 1,200 | 54.1%649 W · 551 L | +28.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…df88backed NightBirds | 15c | 662.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca0…38babacked NightBirds | 16c | 614.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,443 | 43.4%626 W · 817 L | +105.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed NightBirds | 14c | 560.4$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.24 | 1,794 | 51.1%917 W · 877 L | +50.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed NightBirds | 9c | 533.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc33…aa3ebacked NightBirds | 16c | 515.44$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 402 | 37.8%152 W · 250 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed NightBirds | 14c | 513.75$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.54 | 1,058 | 23.5%249 W · 809 L | -75.8wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked NightBirds | 3c | 458$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 259 | 23.2%60 W · 199 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c0…13b5backed NightBirds | 14c | 431.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.45 | 219 | 54.3%119 W · 100 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed NightBirds | 15c | 428.21$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 1,731 | 44.2%765 W · 966 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed NightBirds | 15c | 413$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.36 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked NightBirds | 11c | 410.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 611 | 43.5%266 W · 345 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520e…d75abacked NightBirds | 12c | 392.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 288 | 37.5%108 W · 180 L | -16.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a35…6fe0backed NightBirds | 16c | 375.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 336 | 42.3%142 W · 194 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…f968backed NightBirds | 15c | 303.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed NightBirds | 14c | 250$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 276 | 36.2%100 W · 176 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4255…1792backed NightBirds | 16c | 245.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 124 | 28.2%35 W · 89 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed NightBirds | 15c | 240.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 441 | 28.1%124 W · 317 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d6…54e8backed NightBirds | 15c | 223.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa143…586cbacked NightBirds | 15c | 210.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 269 | 37.5%101 W · 168 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x548f…a2b4backed Los Heretics | 68c | 208.32$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed NightBirds | 8c | 196.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 3,131 | 33.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L | -150.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa1…8026backed NightBirds | 17c | 177.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b9…0fc9backed NightBirds | 10c | 160$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 348 | 37.4%130 W · 218 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed NightBirds | 16c | 154$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked NightBirds | 16c | 149$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 305 | 45.2%138 W · 167 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed NightBirds | 31c | 144.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 282 | 46.5%131 W · 151 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed NightBirds | 13c | 120.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked NightBirds | 16c | 116$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 373 | 45%168 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1e…fe71backed NightBirds | 14c | 113.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed NightBirds | 19c | 104.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1,831 | 17.1%313 W · 1,518 L | -236.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -46%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed NightBirds | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 191 | 46.1%88 W · 103 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked NightBirds | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 474 | 44.1%209 W · 265 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Los Heretics | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 255 | 40.8%104 W · 151 L | -26.0wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa0…7191backed Los Heretics | 77c | 96$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d0…5ea8backed NightBirds | 51c | 88.86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | +14.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked NightBirds | 16c | 72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 453 | 44.6%202 W · 251 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1031…e5bdbacked NightBirds | 15c | 66.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf163…ca34backed NightBirds | 30c | 46.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 1,477 | 48.3%713 W · 764 L | +45.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Los Heretics | 59c | 30.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 261 | 54.8%143 W · 118 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Los Heretics | 43c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 142 | 31%44 W · 98 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…3533backed Los Heretics | 77c | 20.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0be3…8ea6backed Los Heretics | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: NightBirds vs Los Heretics (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group 3this page
- Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs NightBirds (+1.5)Los Heretics won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: NightBirds vs Los Heretics - Game 1 WinnerLos Heretics won
- LoL: NightBirds vs Los Heretics - Game 2 WinnerLos Heretics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.