MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2614a4280205d90e52f247b50ac8fb6b85a9ed6d307000346777d9b025773f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 20,393$10,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,614.53 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2562…c15fbacked Over | 46c | 17,582$8,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,127.85 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 44c | 4,682$2,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,059.96 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Over | 60c | 1,200$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.2 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 55c | 1,000$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 60c | 717.36$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.42 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 49c | 610.25$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.45 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Under | 56c | 591.87$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.42 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 53c | 461$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 42c | 459.78$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.11 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 372.42$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.97 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 43c | 346.48$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.99 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 41c | 337.66$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.44 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 54c | 337.4$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.46 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 60c | 332.78$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.63 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 65c | 319.03$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.35 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 60c | 285.77$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.46 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked Over | 42c | 246.13$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.37 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 53c | 245.29$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.29 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 60c | 229.21$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.53 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Under | 60c | 192.47$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.99 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Over | 46c | 141.27$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaea…4bbfbacked Under | 55c | 132.68$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.71 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 48c | 130.22$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 49c | 118.37$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x466b…bbb3backed Under | 55c | 111.44$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 54c | 101.58$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.73 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Under | 59c | 82.86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed Over | 43c | 74.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…4fd0backed Under | 56c | 69.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 40c | 48.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 45c | 48.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 38c | 48.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 54c | 46.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Over | 39c | 44.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed Under | 60c | 44.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…7b27backed Under | 54c | 40.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…9d57backed Under | 59c | 30.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Under | 59c | 30.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…18f9backed Under | 59c | 30.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Over | 60c | 29.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa97…b225backed Over | 60c | 29.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 45c | 29.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Under | 59c | 28.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb743…c116backed Over | 72c | 27.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…6b7dbacked Under | 59c | 26.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 55c | 26.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 127 | 61.4%78 W · 49 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc55d…405abacked Under | 55c | 24.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 59c | 23.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 59c | 23.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 59c | 23.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 59c | 23.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…f31bbacked Under | 59c | 23.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x231f…254bbacked Under | 59c | 23.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 59c | 23.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 59c | 23.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 59c | 23.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 59c | 23.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 59c | 23.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…37e6backed Under | 59c | 23.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9985…9b14backed Under | 55c | 20.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x104b…ed6bbacked Under | 59c | 18.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota TwinsTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.