Tennis · resolved market
Mariano Navone vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa26a3197abd1b85d724bfca0e1cb882de51545f83cb28ad331483c1ee05b53ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x397e…1200backed Over 2.5 | 48c | 2,369$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Under 2.5 | 61c | 794.72$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.29 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 2.5 | 56c | 521.37$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.02 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Over 2.5 | 43c | 462.69$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.95 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff8…d7fdbacked Under 2.5 | 61c | 320.2$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.88 | 434 | 49.1%213 W · 221 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Over 2.5 | 38c | 220.08$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.21 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa6…d3c2backed Over 2.5 | 47c | 206.57$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.81 | 465 | 62.6%291 W · 174 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over 2.5 | 39c | 178.47$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3d…7de0backed Under 2.5 | 63c | 155.21$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.43 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…85e5backed Under 2.5 | 63c | 155.21$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.43 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ec…1cc8backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 151.86$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.82 | 323 | 33.4%108 W · 215 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Under 2.5 | 35c | 144$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.96 | 246 | 32.9%81 W · 165 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under 2.5 | 55c | 123$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6150…8a24backed Under 2.5 | 56c | 89.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 73.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Under 2.5 | 35c | 72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.48 | 290 | 39.3%114 W · 176 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Under 2.5 | 35c | 72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.48 | 482 | 35.9%173 W · 309 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Under 2.5 | 35c | 72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.48 | 694 | 38%264 W · 430 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Under 2.5 | 35c | 72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.48 | 257 | 37%95 W · 162 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa517…33efbacked Over 2.5 | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Under 2.5 | 38c | 48.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 452 | 35.8%162 W · 290 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under 2.5 | 55c | 43.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x054a…d622backed Under 2.5 | 64c | 39.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x90c9…476dbacked Under 2.5 | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over 2.5 | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…6f07backed Over 2.5 | 41c | 25.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bb…f8b9backed Under 2.5 | 59c | 25.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cd…221dbacked Under 2.5 | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49e1…52febacked Under 2.5 | 67c | 18.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Under 2.5 | 57c | 18.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mariano Navone vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Barcelona Open: Mariano Navone vs Andrey RublevAndrey Rublev won
- Navone vs. Rublev: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Navone vs. Rublev: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Navone vs. Rublev: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Navone vs RublevRublev won
- Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Navone (+1.5)Rublev won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.