Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Navone vs Rublev
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe034044b9c6d517b4e2c0edb873d337559df7d305117fa1cb28bcaa92a79704e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rublevof Navone, Rublev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,595
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,595 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Rublev | 59c | 883.76$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.22 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Navone | 41c | 876.1$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.2 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Navone | 11c | 482.21$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Navone | 13c | 351.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Rublev | 66c | 274.29$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.27 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Navone | 43c | 175.42$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.43 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…85e5backed Rublev | 57c | 170.9$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.48 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…e926backed Navone | 44c | 131.89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Rublev | 68c | 82.48$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Navone | 33c | 75.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…6f07backed Navone | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Rublev | 55c | 58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcf…f174backed Navone | 44c | 39.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Navone | 42c | 33.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 234 | 57.3%134 W · 100 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc8…bdb8backed Rublev | 67c | 29.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 152 | 63.8%97 W · 55 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d41…e3ddbacked Rublev | 63c | 19.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Navone vs Rublevthis page
- Barcelona Open: Mariano Navone vs Andrey RublevAndrey Rublev won
- Mariano Navone vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Navone vs. Rublev: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Navone vs. Rublev: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Navone vs. Rublev: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Navone (+1.5)Rublev won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.