Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Wolves Esports (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa297288320072ad0cb09484bdfb9a074634879ceb845f481798cb4e9fad65351
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- XLG Gamingof XLG Gaming, Wolves Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9767…b5c4backed XLG Gaming | 60c | 1,249$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.19 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Wolves Esports | 40c | 799.99$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Wolves Esports | 11c | 612.54$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 220 | 18.2%40 W · 180 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Wolves Esports | 39c | 451.45$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.07 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…283abacked Wolves Esports | 46c | 324.99$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.5 | 361 | 38.5%139 W · 222 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb7…082dbacked Wolves Esports | 29c | 276.92$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…1160backed XLG Gaming | 54c | 273.01$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.58 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked XLG Gaming | 68c | 148$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.13 | 114 | 33.3%38 W · 76 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…1f38backed Wolves Esports | 17c | 144.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed XLG Gaming | 66c | 117.49$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 395 | 45.8%181 W · 214 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed XLG Gaming | 70c | 99.78$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 796 | 50%398 W · 398 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked XLG Gaming | 57c | 98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Wolves Esports | 11c | 93.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 274 | 11.3%31 W · 243 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed XLG Gaming | 56c | 84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x117b…0fc7backed Wolves Esports | 40c | 83.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Wolves Esports | 23c | 68.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked XLG Gaming | 56c | 61.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 867 | 47.5%412 W · 455 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e93…a2d3backed XLG Gaming | 72c | 59.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb186…a946backed Wolves Esports | 35c | 57.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Wolves Esports | 29c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 285 | 41.1%117 W · 168 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed XLG Gaming | 56c | 46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed XLG Gaming | 58c | 41.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 147 | 57.8%85 W · 62 L | +13.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd084…27eabacked Wolves Esports | 44c | 39.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…f36fbacked XLG Gaming | 71c | 27.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…d32ebacked Wolves Esports | 44c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73a3…dac6backed Wolves Esports | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x934a…9096backed Wolves Esports | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe339…c8f3backed XLG Gaming | 61c | 24.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8254…831ebacked Wolves Esports | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a11…de7cbacked XLG Gaming | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79e0…c91cbacked XLG Gaming | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf17…a317backed XLG Gaming | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Wolves Esports (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff Playoffsthis page
- Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Wolves Esports - Map 1 WinnerXLG Gaming won
- Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Wolves Esports - Map 2 WinnerXLG Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.