NHL · resolved market
Blue Jackets vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa30ab169b106162830011fbc531cdd111c7e104e2a19e05914e569b8b07e8eec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Over | 55c | 49,805$27,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,338.46 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf90e…0b56backed Under | 45c | 33,315$14,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,323.17 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 45c | 10,644$4,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,854.22 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 55c | 9,645$5,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,323.59 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 45c | 5,033$2,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,767.91 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 45c | 4,000$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 46c | 2,397$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,294.2 | 236 | 42.8%101 W · 135 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 45c | 2,167$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,191.85 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Under | 48c | 2,164$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.37 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 45c | 2,030$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.5 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.9 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 1,131$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.14 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 55c | 728$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.4 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 43c | 698.11$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.92 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 44c | 661.75$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.84 | 378 | 47.4%179 W · 199 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 46c | 623$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.42 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Under | 45c | 400$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 53c | 359.73$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.66 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Under | 46c | 328.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.5 | 203 | 45.3%92 W · 111 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 45c | 299.44$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.69 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9f57backed Under | 46c | 278.89$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.74 | 338 | 48.8%165 W · 173 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 45c | 203$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.65 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Under | 45c | 150$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Under | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e48…6fd3backed Over | 52c | 90$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 48c | 89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02a…2573backed Over | 55c | 45.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 178 | 45.5%81 W · 97 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd814…f561backed Under | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Blue Jackets vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5this page
- Blue Jackets vs. IslandersIslanders won
- Spread: Islanders (-1.5)Blue Jackets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.