NHL · resolved market
Rangers vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3479de5fb524077c52a370446c2b93c72b4f1d5cb6e48b662780051e93c704f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8dcd…3823backed Over | 55c | 5,011$2,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,254.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x328f…692abacked Under | 45c | 3,721$1,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,674.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd18…8a51backed Under | 45c | 3,026$1,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,361.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7b…dbd0backed Over | 55c | 2,236$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +104.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88d8…4b55backed Over | 55c | 2,123$1,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +107.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80ea…7691backed Under | 45c | 2,123$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8210…2e9ebacked Over | 55c | 1,833$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f24…279ebacked Over | 54c | 1,547$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9d…7149backed Under | 45c | 1,424$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc60…38fabacked Under | 45c | 1,344$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6664…321dbacked Over | 55c | 1,301$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.45 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 55cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40a0…385ebacked Over | 54c | 1,214$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.44 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x281c…775ebacked Under | 45c | 1,012$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53df…b886backed Under | 45c | 1,011$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.95 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5f…8fd7backed Over | 55c | 963$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e16…991abacked Over | 55c | 912$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…a943backed Over | 55c | 824$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7783…b1fdbacked Under | 45c | 821$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x132d…2f5dbacked Under | 45c | 733$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee9f…b842backed Under | 46c | 698$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…d341backed Under | 45c | 665$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1122…0f70backed Over | 55c | 512$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe52f…fa42backed Under | 46c | 501$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…9b8bbacked Under | 46c | 451$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.46 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122a…8505backed Under | 46c | 435$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 47c | 426.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.41 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 45c | 411.82$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.32 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d06…d786backed Under | 46c | 411$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.06 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888b…aa66backed Under | 46c | 398$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67cf…e85fbacked Under | 46c | 368$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.28 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 48cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ac8fbacked Over | 55c | 345$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 55c | 336.59$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.12 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Over | 53c | 292.26$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.36 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ac…e6c9backed Over | 55c | 230$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.36 | 384 | 45.8%176 W · 208 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 123.66$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd7…8124backed Over | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…f5ddbacked Over | 55c | 55.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.35per pick | 54cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 50c | 55.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Under | 47c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 178 | 45.5%81 W · 97 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d1…4cb7backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rangers vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5this page
- Rangers vs. OilersRangers won
- Rangers vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)Rangers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.