Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Louisville Cardinals (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa355f9ec520c892c870c4531930660c24a74166bd995634777ea82a0dc6dd5f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Louisville Cardinalsof Louisville Cardinals, Baylor Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Louisville Cardinals | 52c | 10,000$5,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,829.19 | 740 | 51.5%381 W · 359 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Baylor Bears | 48c | 6,020$2,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,889.47 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Baylor Bears | 49c | 4,770$2,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,315.75 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Louisville Cardinals | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.99 | 226 | 45.6%103 W · 123 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Louisville Cardinals | 52c | 2,490$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185.38 | 488 | 55.1%269 W · 219 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8758…01e0backed Baylor Bears | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa0…d504backed Baylor Bears | 48c | 1,495$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.95 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Baylor Bears | 51c | 1,250$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.5 | 278 | 51.1%142 W · 136 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Louisville Cardinals | 42c | 659.9$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.62 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Louisville Cardinals | 37c | 599.99$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.25 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Louisville Cardinals | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 564 | 44.1%249 W · 315 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Baylor Bears | 48c | 399.71$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.93 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Baylor Bears | 52c | 288.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Baylor Bears | 48c | 277.4$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.4 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Baylor Bears | 45c | 217.35$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.81 | 277 | 55.2%153 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Louisville Cardinals | 53c | 184.67$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.79 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Baylor Bears | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Louisville Cardinals | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Louisville Cardinals | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a8…5182backed Baylor Bears | 48c | 94.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ea…c2efbacked Louisville Cardinals | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 230 | 54.3%125 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce1…b62cbacked Louisville Cardinals | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Baylor Bears | 66c | 69.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Baylor Bears | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbe…03c5backed Baylor Bears | 48c | 55.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ee…0bb0backed Baylor Bears | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Baylor Bears | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Louisville Cardinals | 54c | 37.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 233 | 63.9%149 W · 84 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec7b…dc40backed Baylor Bears | 48c | 35.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Baylor Bears | 48c | 31.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Louisville Cardinals | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 346 | 49.1%170 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Baylor Bears | 66c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…5ebbbacked Louisville Cardinals | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Louisville Cardinals | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Louisville Cardinals (-6.5)this page
- Louisville Cardinals vs. Baylor BearsLouisville Cardinals won
- Louisville Cardinals vs. Baylor Bears: O/U 162.5Under won
- Louisville Cardinals vs. Baylor Bears: O/U 163.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.