TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Louisville Cardinals vs. Baylor Bears

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Louisville Cardinalsof Louisville Cardinals, Baylor Bears
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$68,524
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$64,361

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,524 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d94…9100backed Baylor Bears5c6,948$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.982,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23c8…f8bcbacked Baylor Bears33c5,792$1,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,887.11947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x403f…2b6bbacked Baylor Bears15c5,162$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.421844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Louisville Cardinals70c4,790$3,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,439.465,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4e8…6300backed Louisville Cardinals75c2,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5001838.9%7 W · 11 L-4.1wins-0.23per pick62cpaid-37.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Louisville Cardinals72c2,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.992,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Baylor Bears2c1,925$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.422,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Baylor Bears13c1,819$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.844,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Baylor Bears30c1,687$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50025130.7%77 W · 174 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Louisville Cardinals74c1,659$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.6274649.2%367 W · 379 L+1.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3043…2cbbbacked Louisville Cardinals74c1,590$1,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.42665.4%17 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Baylor Bears28c1,588$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.31,15550.4%582 W · 573 L-34.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Louisville Cardinals55c1,517$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.134,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Baylor Bears27c1,421$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.581,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Baylor Bears27c1,391$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.2837947.8%181 W · 198 L-26.2wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-17.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Baylor Bears26c1,341$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.6537441.7%156 W · 218 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Baylor Bears25c1,108$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.7912,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Baylor Bears26c896.94$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.13,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c9…4386backed Baylor Bears42c727.78$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3088757.5%50 W · 37 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Baylor Bears44c562.06$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.823,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Baylor Bears28c515.41$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.51,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7aec…a821backed Louisville Cardinals73c500$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Louisville Cardinals71c494$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.082,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Baylor Bears6c424.51$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.171655.3%396 W · 320 L+26.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bff…267ebacked Baylor Bears4c411$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.44714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-66.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x330d…f0c4backed Baylor Bears17c369.35$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.491637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Louisville Cardinals49c312.57$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.4144146.5%205 W · 236 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Baylor Bears42c278.55$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.611046.4%51 W · 59 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Louisville Cardinals78c232.23$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.912,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Louisville Cardinals54c214.36$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.211,29645.1%584 W · 712 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Baylor Bears28c214.29$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6093447.9%447 W · 487 L-19.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Baylor Bears26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e5…eb6abacked Louisville Cardinals74c175.68$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6815733.1%52 W · 105 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-25.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0176…910ebacked Baylor Bears30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010736.4%39 W · 68 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe889…d0c3backed Louisville Cardinals62c162.13$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.133737.8%14 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-23.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Louisville Cardinals74c160$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.6368254.3%370 W · 312 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Baylor Bears42c140$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.820452.9%108 W · 96 L+11.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c10…4e76backed Baylor Bears16c109.86$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820024%48 W · 152 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Baylor Bears28c103.52$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9992246%424 W · 498 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc3a…e1f0backed Louisville Cardinals73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2726848.1%129 W · 139 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Baylor Bears28c99.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281,31733.6%443 W · 874 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Baylor Bears26c88.45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6899045.6%451 W · 539 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x363d…fe75backed Louisville Cardinals74c87.84$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8412245.1%55 W · 67 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-18.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Baylor Bears26c87.05$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.631,15248.9%563 W · 589 L+3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe624…2928backed Louisville Cardinals71c75$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7540849.8%203 W · 205 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Baylor Bears28c70.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7121646.8%101 W · 115 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Louisville Cardinals68c70$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.41,42043.9%623 W · 797 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Louisville Cardinals72c69.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.444,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x752e…ecbfbacked Louisville Cardinals73c65.75$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.757352.1%38 W · 35 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfae3…9192backed Louisville Cardinals75c65.22$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.21894.4%17 W · 1 L+3.4wins+0.19per pick76cpaid+25%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7ffa…1e06backed Baylor Bears16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103138.7%12 W · 19 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-22.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Baylor Bears28c56.41$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.881,24916.4%205 W · 1,044 L-189.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Louisville Cardinals69c52.61$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4220248%97 W · 105 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b12…7a77backed Louisville Cardinals74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1352353.5%280 W · 243 L-17.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x00cf…d102backed Louisville Cardinals72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1421449.5%106 W · 108 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22cc…8aeabacked Baylor Bears33c44.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5522730.4%69 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f78…d7c1backed Baylor Bears46c43.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202030%6 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick35cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Louisville Cardinals67c42.9$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.361,39752.7%736 W · 661 L+26.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe75b…b4f5backed Louisville Cardinals72c41.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.671553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7b5…9bf7backed Baylor Bears30c39.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3458…b5a7backed Baylor Bears52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205459.3%32 W · 22 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe20d…735dbacked Louisville Cardinals73c38.03$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Louisville Cardinals49c38$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.383,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf395…ac0abacked Baylor Bears36c36$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9635650.8%181 W · 175 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8996…15efbacked Baylor Bears33c31.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5719138.2%73 W · 118 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8cc…ae8dbacked Louisville Cardinals64c31.19$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.191471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+23.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7f7…06c5backed Louisville Cardinals73c29.45$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9542751.8%221 W · 206 L+0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b99…97e1backed Louisville Cardinals72c29.27$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ab1…d0eebacked Baylor Bears45c28.91$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-46.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b48…c530backed Louisville Cardinals73c27.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41163.6%7 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick74cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x989a…afbcbacked Louisville Cardinals67c26.98$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.970349.6%349 W · 354 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Louisville Cardinals70c26$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.81,66736.4%607 W · 1,060 L-4.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Louisville Cardinals72c25.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3443053.3%229 W · 201 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Louisville Cardinals73c23.29$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2923363.9%149 W · 84 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x94ab…2cf2backed Louisville Cardinals72c23.24$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe53…2dbabacked Louisville Cardinals73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.410095%95 W · 5 L+21.3wins+0.21per pick74cpaid+29.1%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Louisville Cardinals64c19.73$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0694036.9%347 W · 593 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x191a…e89fbacked Louisville Cardinals75c18.75$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b1f…ab49backed Louisville Cardinals74c16.48$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c4…df5fbacked Louisville Cardinals72c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.168549.4%42 W · 43 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.