Bundesliga · resolved market
Hannover 96 vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa36f51437f72d57f9810eaf9e10f878274c1391dde7579295233a0bd33c1a8e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 1,457$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.94 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 30c | 950$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 44c | 611.48$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.05 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 35c | 541.02$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.19 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 36c | 443.73$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.74 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 39c | 386.77$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…34d9backed Over | 39c | 381.72$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 16c | 362.32$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -8.5wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 61c | 241.95$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.36 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 65c | 239.48$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.33 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 65c | 231.35$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.48 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 61c | 186.77$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.84 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 65c | 183.03$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.18 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 65c | 173.28$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.67 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 65c | 173.28$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.67 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d0…1310backed Under | 65c | 170.83$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.79 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 65c | 170.83$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.79 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7335…dd65backed Under | 65c | 170.83$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.79 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 62c | 118$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…e772backed Under | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f55…4213backed Under | 64c | 77.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Under | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 61c | 56.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Under | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.3wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 66c | 38.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 65c | 38.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Under | 67c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Over | 33c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 61c | 31.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 62c | 29.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e51…c2e4backed Under | 58c | 29.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…a444backed Under | 64c | 21.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…c734backed Under | 64c | 19.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hannover 96 vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 3.5this page
- Hannover 96 vs. SV 07 Elversberg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hannover 96 vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hannover 96 vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 2.5Under won
- Hannover 96 vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Hannover 96 (-1.5)SV 07 Elversberg won
- Spread: Hannover 96 (-2.5)SV 07 Elversberg won
- Spread: SV 07 Elversberg (-2.5)Hannover 96 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.