Bundesliga · resolved market
Hannover 96 vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce052c1aa96840c9c841bb488bfa2f67c80b0a3a8495fe8ea3020f288ae11256
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 53c | 9,870$5,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,231.1 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 9,239$4,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,944.92 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 1,254$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.68 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 42c | 1,040$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.02 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 60c | 837.37$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 60c | 800$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 60c | 503.23$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 55c | 436.36$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.36 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 422.71$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.05 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 90 | 67.8%61 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Under | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 41c | 293.49$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.49 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 41c | 215.12$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.92 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 56c | 208$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.48 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 201.98$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.45 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc385…8eb0backed Over | 57c | 175.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…34d9backed Under | 45c | 136.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 55c | 121.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.09 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 42c | 109.87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.71 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…2c06backed Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 41c | 98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.82 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Over | 53c | 92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -8.5wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…abcbbacked Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 44c | 75.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 40c | 65.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Over | 53c | 61.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 41c | 46.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 42c | 45.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Over | 53c | 41.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…c2e9backed Over | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7b…aec1backed Under | 68c | 39.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…c936backed Over | 59c | 32.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Under | 42c | 30.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…8cf8backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5382…8d53backed Under | 40c | 26.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x434e…c06abacked Over | 72c | 22.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 58c | 22.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 68c | 19.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadc9…f1b6backed Over | 60c | 18.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hannover 96 vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 2.5this page
- Hannover 96 vs. SV 07 Elversberg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hannover 96 vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hannover 96 vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 3.5Under won
- Hannover 96 vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Hannover 96 (-1.5)SV 07 Elversberg won
- Spread: Hannover 96 (-2.5)SV 07 Elversberg won
- Spread: SV 07 Elversberg (-2.5)Hannover 96 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.