South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Club Cerro Porteño win on 2026-04-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3826b1b25ea935b8b3e88ebad20c6c6e4206758f193f25005049705308e3b22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,001
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,001 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4956…e2c7backed No | 58c | 3,961$2,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,292.61 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 63c | 1,735$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.56 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…6478backed Yes | 42c | 1,445$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.84 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…deb3backed Yes | 45c | 1,206$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.64 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 42c | 987$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.46 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 42c | 984.57$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.05 | 1,655 | 50.6%838 W · 817 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 75c | 656.34$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.05 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 43c | 580.68$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.31 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed No | 55c | 397.96$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.88 | 429 | 62.2%267 W · 162 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 56c | 334.53$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.05 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44d5…1a5bbacked No | 27c | 309.95$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.21 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked No | 8c | 291.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 76c | 248.51$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.39 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…5feabacked Yes | 44c | 219.64$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…764ebacked Yes | 33c | 215.17$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.16 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…c18ebacked No | 58c | 199.83$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.9 | 213 | 45.1%96 W · 117 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed No | 55c | 176.15$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 171 | 43.9%75 W · 96 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…994ebacked Yes | 49c | 173.23$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.59 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Yes | 49c | 122$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.68 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 50c | 120.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf40a…ea0abacked Yes | 75c | 112.44$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 82 | 68.3%56 W · 26 L | +8.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 61c | 101.35$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…c6cebacked No | 53c | 91.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 42c | 78.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 175 | 60.6%106 W · 69 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 55c | 63.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Yes | 65c | 62.66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 133 | 73.7%98 W · 35 L | +22.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 29c | 54.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked No | 55c | 53.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes | 38c | 50.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 145 | 70.3%102 W · 43 L | +22.6wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xee92…7ec3backed Yes | 47c | 50.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…2c24backed No | 33c | 49.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 26c | 49.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 39c | 46.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd738…b973backed Yes | 43c | 40.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked No | 55c | 39.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 332 | 66.3%220 W · 112 L | +24.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 57c | 38.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed No | 33c | 35.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7333…ca16backed No | 40c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 57c | 29.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 179 | 50.8%91 W · 88 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b03…13eebacked Yes | 44c | 26.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked No | 68c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Yes | 71c | 22.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Yes | 80c | 21.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Club Cerro Porteño win on 2026-04-14?this page
- Will CDP Junior FC win on 2026-04-14?No won
- Will Club Cerro Porteño vs. CDP Junior FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.