Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SG Dynamo Dresden vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa39f335391695d1f9c919e124b97d0ffd2e3c5e954160437b0df5696cfcec222
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0609…b093backed No | 22c | 801.22$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 28c | 501.44$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.04 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed No | 72c | 422$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.84 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.83 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 70c | 309.83$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.31 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 171.33$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.61 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 29c | 153$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.63 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…c927backed No | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -6.5wins | -0.29per pick | 48cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 34c | 43.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed No | 26c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…9f00backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…b0c4backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SG Dynamo Dresden vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld end in a draw?this page
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-02-01?No won
- Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-02-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.