CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3c69970a3895066997ce87a140ad584473396a1d9a820019ce498d1782742e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fire Flux Esportsof Misa Esports, Fire Flux Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed Misa Esports | 38c | 864.09$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.07 | 332 | 37%123 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…a9b3backed Fire Flux Esports | 54c | 803.15$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.43 | 1,205 | 54.5%657 W · 548 L | -37.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x887b…bf0fbacked Misa Esports | 31c | 693.36$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Fire Flux Esports | 47c | 687.89$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.6 | 5,137 | 55%2,826 W · 2,311 L | +119.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Misa Esports | 54c | 463.75$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.43 | 5,911 | 37.7%2,228 W · 3,683 L | +74.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…a5c9backed Fire Flux Esports | 46c | 325.52$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.78 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Misa Esports | 11c | 212.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 6,522 | 42.9%2,798 W · 3,724 L | -80.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Misa Esports | 52c | 210.47$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.44 | 576 | 41.5%239 W · 337 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Fire Flux Esports | 44c | 207.27$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.07 | 183 | 41%75 W · 108 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Misa Esports | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 1,051 | 39.8%418 W · 633 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…4397backed Misa Esports | 54c | 180.07$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…1650backed Fire Flux Esports | 46c | 176.06$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.07 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3e…5bc0backed Misa Esports | 38c | 149.49$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 153 | 58.2%89 W · 64 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6722…865fbacked Misa Esports | 56c | 130.73$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.01 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Fire Flux Esports | 67c | 121.67$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…ad19backed Misa Esports | 54c | 116.69$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.01 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…737abacked Misa Esports | 42c | 113.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Misa Esports | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 916 | 48.9%448 W · 468 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Fire Flux Esports | 64c | 92.94$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 5,651 | 47.2%2,668 W · 2,983 L | +46.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…18bbbacked Misa Esports | 55c | 87.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…d7babacked Fire Flux Esports | 53c | 85.35$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 406 | 52.2%212 W · 194 L | +22.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaee4…471fbacked Misa Esports | 53c | 78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 357 | 52.9%189 W · 168 L | +22.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed Misa Esports | 52c | 72.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 396 | 46%182 W · 214 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Misa Esports | 14c | 71.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a6…f48bbacked Fire Flux Esports | 54c | 62.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x537a…7447backed Misa Esports | 57c | 61.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed Fire Flux Esports | 46c | 52.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Fire Flux Esports | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 644 | 39.8%256 W · 388 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc7…9194backed Fire Flux Esports | 47c | 45.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 92 | 51.1%47 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdffe…b4d3backed Misa Esports | 56c | 40.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 146 | 30.8%45 W · 101 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11ab…f911backed Fire Flux Esports | 45c | 39.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa553…3eaebacked Fire Flux Esports | 48c | 36.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Misa Esports | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 336 | 57.1%192 W · 144 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…c96ebacked Misa Esports | 39c | 34.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Misa Esports | 53c | 34.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Misa Esports | 48c | 33.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 630 | 38.6%243 W · 387 L | -26.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d77…d94abacked Misa Esports | 52c | 33.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Fire Flux Esports | 80c | 33.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 8,058 | 50.3%4,055 W · 4,003 L | +171.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Fire Flux Esports | 50c | 33.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 472 | 60%283 W · 189 L | +31.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…186dbacked Misa Esports | 54c | 29.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 361 | 47.6%172 W · 189 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf6…c27dbacked Fire Flux Esports | 57c | 25.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea49…434fbacked Misa Esports | 40c | 24.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 150 | 57.3%86 W · 64 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Fire Flux Esports | 61c | 23.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Misa Esports | 51c | 22.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - United21 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 1 WinnerFire Flux Esports won
- Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 WinnerFire Flux Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.