Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3c7886d9186c478efaecb476a9fd423233799599301addd4789380118d4a509
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,929
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec4f…9b0cbacked No | 17c | 1,245$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.12 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 79c | 1,068$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.66 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 5c | 739.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 90 | 17.8%16 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa739…e31abacked No | 3c | 637.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 7c | 301.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 5c | 229.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.39 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…6bd8backed Yes | 75c | 167$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.6wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed No | 21c | 156.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a0…bf09backed Yes | 7c | 146.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.32 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 8c | 139.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 124.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed Yes | 39c | 111.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.57 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 80c | 108.2$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 33c | 107.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 25c | 101.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.16 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564a…8871backed No | 70c | 89.72$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…d735backed Yes | 79c | 75.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.32per pick | 56cpaid | +145.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 45c | 62.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed No | 34c | 56.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 74c | 51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1297…1fb0backed Yes | 60c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21e5…b7e9backed Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 52c | 25.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 65c | 25.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd5…33cfbacked Yes | 78c | 20.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4754…c1fdbacked Yes | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 67c | 16.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or higher on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.