Tennis · resolved market
Brisbane International: Liudmila Samsonova vs Jessica Pegula
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3c86cd046a8f4edbc1d039a153bd333d74f8050e1e38a5892c360b032604f5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pegulaof Samsonova, Pegula
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $150,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Samsonova | 27c | 10,883$2,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,968.68 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Samsonova | 8c | 4,863$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.7 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Samsonova | 9c | 4,595$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.44 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Samsonova | 15c | 4,080$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.16 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Samsonova | 4c | 3,977$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.43 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Samsonova | 26c | 3,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…8bfabacked Pegula | 78c | 2,400$1,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Samsonova | 8c | 2,393$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.05 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…7708backed Samsonova | 22c | 1,700$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Samsonova | 32c | 1,500$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.42 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Samsonova | 9c | 1,179$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.66 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pegula | 68c | 1,063$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.09 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Samsonova | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0d…cce6backed Samsonova | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Samsonova | 2c | 873.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Pegula | 47c | 850.19$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.19 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae90…f6c8backed Samsonova | 24c | 800$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…df80backed Samsonova | 30c | 673.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 227 | 44.5%101 W · 126 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed Pegula | 45c | 671.13$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.13 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Samsonova | 22c | 668.35$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.04 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…4cf8backed Samsonova | 11c | 644$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.28 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pegula | 69c | 509$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.59 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Samsonova | 6c | 437.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Samsonova | 6c | 373.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ba…6c27backed Pegula | 68c | 367.65$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.65 | 1,186 | 62.8%745 W · 441 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd951…f30bbacked Samsonova | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Samsonova | 28c | 354.7$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.84 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…eaeebacked Samsonova | 9c | 353.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4f…3ae6backed Samsonova | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Samsonova | 32c | 312.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,266 | 34.2%433 W · 833 L | -43.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Pegula | 59c | 304.05$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.48 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cc…b660backed Pegula | 42c | 299.98$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.99 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x097f…3022backed Samsonova | 6c | 292.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb434…2b36backed Pegula | 74c | 269.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.32 | 25 | 84%21 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed Pegula | 78c | 256.42$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…4c5abacked Pegula | 80c | 231.43$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cb…7b9bbacked Pegula | 78c | 225.73$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed Samsonova | 18c | 205.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2f…578fbacked Pegula | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Samsonova | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Samsonova | 25c | 195.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 174 | 32.2%56 W · 118 L | -15.1wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b2…1c67backed Pegula | 69c | 189.68$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.26 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Samsonova | 15c | 179.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a5…cf2dbacked Samsonova | 8c | 126.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bf…ceeabacked Samsonova | 31c | 126.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Samsonova | 58c | 106$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 593 | 48.9%290 W · 303 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68f0…fdf8backed Pegula | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07fe…0a16backed Pegula | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 270 | 58.1%157 W · 113 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6b…81cbbacked Pegula | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Samsonova | 23c | 87.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 186 | 59.7%111 W · 75 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…f9a6backed Pegula | 79c | 80.92$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…2511backed Samsonova | 17c | 76.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…db1fbacked Pegula | 59c | 76.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ace…b219backed Pegula | 71c | 73.21$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5853…dc28backed Pegula | 72c | 67.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe901…3139backed Samsonova | 31c | 65.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 238 | 32.4%77 W · 161 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Samsonova | 58c | 64.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a51…14bfbacked Samsonova | 17c | 58.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72f9…629abacked Samsonova | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3848…776abacked Pegula | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Pegula | 68c | 44.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 584 | 38.2%223 W · 361 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…3648backed Pegula | 59c | 42.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Samsonova | 30c | 34.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 684 | 30%205 W · 479 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Pegula | 66c | 29.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e4…98f5backed Pegula | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 70 | 74.3%52 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6774…067dbacked Pegula | 76c | 26.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…9775backed Pegula | 79c | 24.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb815…342fbacked Pegula | 70c | 16.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Pegula | 70c | 16.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Brisbane International: Liudmila Samsonova vs Jessica Pegulathis page
- Set 1 Winner: Samsonova vs PegulaPegula won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.