CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs ReThink - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3ee65b388f5220e39451186f504a242659f989a8350934b93a40005c4aa2e80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Allianceof Alliance, ReThink
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,148 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0af…3b75backed Alliance | 64c | 513.33$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.33 | 183 | 42.1%77 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked ReThink | 23c | 430.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.03 | 3,259 | 50.3%1,639 W · 1,620 L | +98.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12bc…bf2fbacked ReThink | 30c | 414$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.4 | 374 | 41.7%156 W · 218 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed ReThink | 37c | 250.98$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.51 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed ReThink | 23c | 181.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 696 | 35.3%246 W · 450 L | -49.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa743…7300backed ReThink | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…fd1bbacked ReThink | 34c | 177.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1136…ff3bbacked Alliance | 59c | 169.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked ReThink | 44c | 146.03$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.58 | 3,236 | 51.2%1,657 W · 1,579 L | +88.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Alliance | 63c | 111.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 124 | 69.4%86 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Alliance | 65c | 109.28$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9c…101cbacked ReThink | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -9.6wins | -0.14per pick | 66cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked ReThink | 45c | 94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 2,605 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,234 L | +97.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Alliance | 62c | 88.48$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | +20.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed ReThink | 32c | 86.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0c…3ccebacked Alliance | 55c | 67.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 416 | 40.6%169 W · 247 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…9429backed Alliance | 53c | 62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…a4cbbacked ReThink | 68c | 55.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 260 | 48.8%127 W · 133 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022d…d8cebacked ReThink | 38c | 39.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…55e0backed Alliance | 60c | 39.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 493 | 76.1%375 W · 118 L | +96.8wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed ReThink | 53c | 38.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 527 | 55.8%294 W · 233 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7721…e537backed ReThink | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd2…1f27backed Alliance | 69c | 28.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 548 | 39.8%218 W · 330 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc186…ad81backed Alliance | 65c | 23.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Alliance vs ReThink - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Alliance vs ReThink (BO3) - Journey Group DAlliance won
- Counter-Strike: Alliance vs ReThink - Map 2 WinnerAlliance won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.