Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs Carstensz (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa435c55739262e404790362d8d8e14cc15e73f6a49049af71298c34f2bb86962
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yangon Galacticosof Yangon Galacticos, Carstensz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Carstensz | 3c | 2,299$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.51 | 87 | 9.2%8 W · 79 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…f34ebacked Carstensz | 1c | 1,400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Carstensz | 1c | 1,300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 61 | 3.3%2 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -61%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5520…32ffbacked Carstensz | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Carstensz | 33c | 958.76$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.09 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c3…0c52backed Carstensz | 34c | 647$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a1…21a1backed Carstensz | 32c | 574$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22b…177bbacked Carstensz | 34c | 564$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2784…c374backed Carstensz | 32c | 552$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a99…cedcbacked Carstensz | 32c | 548$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…9b3fbacked Carstensz | 32c | 507$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Carstensz | 32c | 502.94$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.94 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Yangon Galacticos | 63c | 499.83$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.69 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d0…f8d1backed Yangon Galacticos | 66c | 360$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x871e…6566backed Yangon Galacticos | 54c | 316.45$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.82 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…8401backed Yangon Galacticos | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab4…564fbacked Yangon Galacticos | 76c | 288.71$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.51 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…efd0backed Yangon Galacticos | 66c | 287$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbadf…966dbacked Yangon Galacticos | 66c | 284$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b36…cd58backed Yangon Galacticos | 66c | 280$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f60…f025backed Yangon Galacticos | 68c | 276$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x840f…95a9backed Yangon Galacticos | 68c | 276$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x648f…87dfbacked Yangon Galacticos | 68c | 276$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62a…7c64backed Yangon Galacticos | 68c | 274$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3429…8e63backed Yangon Galacticos | 68c | 272$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e84…858fbacked Yangon Galacticos | 68c | 268$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0287…6fdbbacked Yangon Galacticos | 68c | 239$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Carstensz | 48c | 208.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Carstensz | 55c | 208.04$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Yangon Galacticos | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c3…2149backed Yangon Galacticos | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d11…9d09backed Yangon Galacticos | 52c | 198.79$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…9b2abacked Yangon Galacticos | 9c | 169.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.42 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…7295backed Yangon Galacticos | 75c | 160.1$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -4.3wins | -0.31per pick | 66cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Yangon Galacticos | 33c | 158.72$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.82 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Yangon Galacticos | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Yangon Galacticos | 75c | 95$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Carstensz | 27c | 82.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed Yangon Galacticos | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa57…1e6bbacked Yangon Galacticos | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a8…bf60backed Carstensz | 44c | 45.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yangon Galacticos | 64c | 35.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fde…b480backed Yangon Galacticos | 46c | 32.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Yangon Galacticos | 70c | 31.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf9…1197backed Carstensz | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce0a…2d88backed Yangon Galacticos | 73c | 15.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs Carstensz (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs Carstensz - Game 2 WinnerYangon Galacticos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.