Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C or below on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa45c4e79573be912104222cefb1b401a4b260006fca37faa79de4390246dc797
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 61c | 1,621$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.59 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 69c | 724.75$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.25 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…8623backed Yes | 41c | 365.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.81 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…3f6dbacked No | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 237.84$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 31c | 237.68$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.79 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb063…6e0abacked Yes | 43c | 193.14$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.98 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb49…41a2backed No | 64c | 192.83$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.66 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa927…52a3backed No | 6c | 179.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 42c | 138.65$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.31 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 20c | 136$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.33 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 39c | 134.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 9c | 129.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e35…24a7backed Yes | 29c | 124.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.77 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 15c | 121.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 36c | 116.55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.93 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80b3…e5d9backed No | 54c | 111.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 50c | 104.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.99 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 56c | 91.68$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 35c | 91.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.44 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed Yes | 25c | 91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0c73…1a76backed Yes | 26c | 87.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.37 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab5…f7d8backed No | 24c | 84.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked No | 69c | 81.73$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.14 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 63c | 80.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 59c | 79.58$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 26c | 79.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x14f4…5944backed Yes | 27c | 73.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6969…c0c1backed Yes | 41c | 68.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 50c | 64.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed Yes | 54c | 58.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 53.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 58c | 43.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 38c | 42.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 32c | 41.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked Yes | 50c | 40.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Yes | 40c | 39.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 77c | 38.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 68c | 36.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed Yes | 38c | 36.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…d649backed Yes | 62c | 35.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71f3…0b6cbacked No | 54c | 34.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 70c | 34.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Yes | 43c | 33.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb76d…636bbacked Yes | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 76c | 31.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf2…e987backed No | 77c | 29.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed Yes | 49c | 28.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185b…0f27backed Yes | 45c | 28.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…fb35backed Yes | 50c | 28.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed Yes | 43c | 27.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 80c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 23.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C or below on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.