MLB · resolved market
ALDS: Tigers vs. Guardians Game 3
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa46419440a743ca4f17f783ce1eaea544d1c766effdf26b314393f74763f0092
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tigersof Tigers, Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7ce…ab3abacked Guardians | 51c | 1,148$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.33 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Tigers | 49c | 1,148$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.33 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Guardians | 48c | 427.09$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.95 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cd…238dbacked Tigers | 49c | 263.16$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.21 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x675b…822abacked Tigers | 52c | 230.77$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.77 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c36…52b9backed Tigers | 74c | 225$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Guardians | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed42…7718backed Tigers | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Guardians | 49c | 135.66$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.48 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8637…6490backed Tigers | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a43…8691backed Guardians | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Guardians | 51c | 95.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Guardians | 49c | 72.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3298…e82cbacked Guardians | 51c | 70.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd73…595bbacked Tigers | 51c | 62.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…9c6abacked Guardians | 49c | 49.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 52cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7052…74aebacked Guardians | 51c | 29.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c9…b4e0backed Tigers | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4e6dbacked Tigers | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46e8…30dabacked Tigers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.