UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa470db929ef14c6d5b3933709ba9bc82cbb02b9a279f397b69348c6eaa2281c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,904
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,904 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 38c | 2,108$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.04 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b68…08bbbacked Over | 62c | 1,299$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.07 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Over | 62c | 861.44$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.35 | 153 | 48.4%74 W · 79 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 37c | 402.01$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.74 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b56…23b4backed Over | 60c | 308.12$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.37 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 40c | 295.83$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.33 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf334…bdefbacked Over | 63c | 198.41$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.41 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 38c | 160$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f9…ae42backed Over | 62c | 160$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa430…c6f9backed Under | 41c | 122.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd738…eeeebacked Over | 63c | 83.62$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 132 | 48.5%64 W · 68 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc80…ae6fbacked Over | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4f…6cb9backed Over | 63c | 76.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Under | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 155 | 56.8%88 W · 67 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc0…d34dbacked Over | 70c | 64.55$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2814…b0ccbacked Over | 63c | 42.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7e…e0b3backed Under | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Under | 41c | 27.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2909…5326backed Over | 59c | 22.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- UFC Fight Night: Alden Coria vs. Stewart Nicoll (Flyweight, Prelims)Alden Coria won
- Will Alden Coria win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.