Tennis · resolved market
Alcaraz vs. Baez: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4abdc89285f16da9b405cc02c09829fcd7084d66446079c46f521fe0914f0ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 45c | 772.61$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.93 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Under | 51c | 472.81$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.77 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8c…f75abacked Over | 55c | 442.27$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.25 | 327 | 63.9%209 W · 118 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Over | 56c | 348.44$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.71 | 188 | 68.6%129 W · 59 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Over | 55c | 332.02$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.51 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7756…d00abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 200.73$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.41 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…b81bbacked Over | 55c | 196.43$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.01 | 180 | 59.4%107 W · 73 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 44c | 168.9$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.58 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Under | 45c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 299 | 47.5%142 W · 157 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Over | 55c | 35.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 749 | 61.8%463 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0836…92f1backed Over | 55c | 26.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4168…a631backed Over | 55c | 22.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…8a75backed Over | 55c | 22.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Alcaraz vs. Baez: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5this page
- Carlos Alcaraz vs. Sebastian Baez: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian BaezCarlos Alcaraz won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs BaezAlcaraz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.