Tennis · resolved market
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb71051c5f3524f577ccf1c97e51f8a7c826be81fab53350cac5b1548e7666d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Carlos Alcarazof Carlos Alcaraz, Sebastian Baez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $339,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $275,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $339,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Sebastian Baez | 3c | 36,342$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.17 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Sebastian Baez | 1c | 32,923$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.65 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d4…8b32backed Sebastian Baez | 1c | 20,245$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.14 | 1,206 | 8%96 W · 1,110 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5123…2f31backed Sebastian Baez | 3c | 15,491$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.07 | 183 | 15.8%29 W · 154 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Sebastian Baez | 3c | 11,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Sebastian Baez | 3c | 10,600$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Sebastian Baez | 1c | 10,132$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.29 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…cea5backed Sebastian Baez | 0c | 7,633$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Sebastian Baez | 4c | 7,536$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.01 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…ee5abacked Sebastian Baez | 4c | 7,127$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.84 | 148 | 22.3%33 W · 115 L | -14.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf56b…ac88backed Sebastian Baez | 1c | 5,790$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Sebastian Baez | 4c | 5,610$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.38 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed Sebastian Baez | 3c | 5,604$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.61 | 123 | 22%27 W · 96 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ad…83dcbacked Sebastian Baez | 3c | 4,999$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.88 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Sebastian Baez | 4c | 4,240$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.88 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Sebastian Baez | 4c | 4,114$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.2 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…ca81backed Sebastian Baez | 0c | 3,780$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 217 | 20.3%44 W · 173 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Sebastian Baez | 4c | 3,011$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…934dbacked Sebastian Baez | 4c | 2,965$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.74 | 307 | 15.6%48 W · 259 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Sebastian Baez | 3c | 2,861$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.83 | 785 | 36.1%283 W · 502 L | +36.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Sebastian Baez | 5c | 2,665$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Sebastian Baez | 4c | 2,212$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…ecc4backed Sebastian Baez | 1c | 1,969$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Sebastian Baez | 4c | 1,885$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 582 | 32%186 W · 396 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa566…72debacked Sebastian Baez | 1c | 1,772$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Sebastian Baez | 4c | 1,750$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.63 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Sebastian Baez | 3c | 1,700$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Sebastian Baez | 1c | 1,581$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Sebastian Baez | 4c | 1,471$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.31 | 220 | 37.7%83 W · 137 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…319ebacked Sebastian Baez | 4c | 1,458$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.69 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked Sebastian Baez | 4c | 921.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x725b…c913backed Sebastian Baez | 2c | 901.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2294…4cd3backed Sebastian Baez | 4c | 739.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Sebastian Baez | 3c | 674.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Sebastian Baez | 2c | 605.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 278 | 36.3%101 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Sebastian Baez | 3c | 599.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 292 | 30.5%89 W · 203 L | -11.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88d0…17a6backed Sebastian Baez | 4c | 499.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Sebastian Baez | 4c | 347.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 87 | 24.1%21 W · 66 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Sebastian Baez | 4c | 339.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bd…478fbacked Sebastian Baez | 4c | 316.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 544 | 50.6%275 W · 269 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee9…1362backed Sebastian Baez | 4c | 314.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 725 | 42.6%309 W · 416 L | -20.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Sebastian Baez | 4c | 292.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d36…85e6backed Sebastian Baez | 4c | 288.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ca…468abacked Sebastian Baez | 4c | 272.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +28%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…d098backed Sebastian Baez | 5c | 258.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…4e69backed Sebastian Baez | 4c | 240.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baezthis page
- Alcaraz vs. Baez: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Carlos Alcaraz vs. Sebastian Baez: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs BaezAlcaraz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.