Mls · resolved market
Real Salt Lake vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4c58f35c16ea93fb76584258ae8d56d03db83fabe95cc69996bc2e7cc84bbd2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,023 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 853.35$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.83 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 60c | 822.07$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.83 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Over | 49c | 608.66$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.66 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1080…142abacked Over | 53c | 520.01$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 48c | 516.48$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.41 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 40c | 474.97$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.99 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 402.56$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.02 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 44c | 375.95$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.8 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 53c | 349.27$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.86 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 53c | 329.15$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.15 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…85f2backed Under | 49c | 265$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5618…f2c0backed Over | 51c | 264.99$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 39c | 205.16$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.96 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 52c | 186.06$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.06 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Under | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…526abacked Over | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5913…3bbebacked Over | 68c | 144.01$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…3f87backed Over | 51c | 130$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 47c | 107.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.62 | 215 | 47.9%103 W · 112 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Over | 66c | 102$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…7ba4backed Over | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43bd…feacbacked Over | 79c | 97.72$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 55c | 85.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 46c | 79.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad8b…aa8dbacked Over | 55c | 74.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Over | 65c | 62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…c0efbacked Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 42c | 60.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 36c | 59.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +12.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4929…b9f9backed Over | 67c | 33.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Over | 46c | 31.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 52c | 28.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 41c | 28.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 47c | 28.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 75c | 27.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 47c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4658backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…f266backed Over | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Salt Lake vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Real Salt Lake vs. Austin FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Austin FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Austin FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Austin FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-2.5)Austin FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.