Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Sonego vs Butvilas
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4dff9cfe39bb6b0a7afe5ef8f96beffafbc0869a994c0d27837b3aa7ab3a1f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Butvilasof Sonego, Butvilas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0574…3ee0backed Sonego | 29c | 996.76$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Butvilas | 67c | 976$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.08 | 4,411 | 51.8%2,286 W · 2,125 L | +137.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Sonego | 3c | 967$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Sonego | 33c | 498.42$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.15 | 9,231 | 44.3%4,088 W · 5,143 L | -241.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Butvilas | 66c | 454.55$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.55 | 1,672 | 50.1%837 W · 835 L | +30.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Sonego | 36c | 399.98$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.99 | 547 | 46.8%256 W · 291 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…51dbbacked Sonego | 35c | 368.06$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Butvilas | 64c | 233.9$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.84 | 924 | 48.7%450 W · 474 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Butvilas | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d32…fe22backed Sonego | 59c | 176.27$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Butvilas | 72c | 172.1$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 7,745 | 50.6%3,916 W · 3,829 L | +93.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Butvilas | 41c | 165.85$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.85 | 7,710 | 47.8%3,685 W · 4,025 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Butvilas | 69c | 142$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 367 | 57.8%212 W · 155 L | +26.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Butvilas | 72c | 140.59$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 6,411 | 54.4%3,486 W · 2,925 L | +283.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Sonego | 38c | 127$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 704 | 65.2%459 W · 245 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc104…5faabacked Sonego | 43c | 124.05$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Butvilas | 59c | 109.46$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 3,631 | 54.9%1,995 W · 1,636 L | +110.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca97…f3cebacked Butvilas | 66c | 62.12$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Butvilas | 62c | 60.39$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Butvilas | 61c | 59.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 365 | 57.5%210 W · 155 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…58e8backed Sonego | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 135 | 47.4%64 W · 71 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Butvilas | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 830 | 47%390 W · 440 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Sonego | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Sonego vs Butvilasthis page
- Geneva Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Edas ButvilasEdas Butvilas won
- Set Handicap: Sonego (-1.5) vs Butvilas (+1.5)Butvilas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.