Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or higher on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4ec3bf3ba5aafa47d0c836bc8c92e0b74c71d029d63340d3d393ae8e5713447
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,442
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 11c | 1,207$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.51 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 4c | 671.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 9c | 591.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 9c | 434.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 5c | 361.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 5c | 340.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 283.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed Yes | 10c | 277.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 10c | 276.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 5c | 273.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 12c | 261.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb0…611abacked Yes | 12c | 197.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 7c | 178.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…85f7backed Yes | 9c | 173.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…7839backed Yes | 17c | 128.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 9c | 120$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 11c | 108.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 15c | 105$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked Yes | 18c | 104.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb696…02d9backed No | 70c | 51.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1791…f8ecbacked Yes | 25c | 47.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 34c | 40.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 78c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 73c | 27.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 79c | 20.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or higher on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on May 12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.