Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4af08dd98955eb14b3b2b29a96f0795d896228d43df635553fd42eebd3a1128e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 10c | 311.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 76c | 285.23$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.82 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 27c | 242.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.37 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked No | 74c | 227.61$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.63 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 8c | 189.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 32c | 189.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 26c | 181$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 70c | 157.97$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 69c | 138.37$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.41 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 35c | 111.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 68c | 110.59$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 30c | 104.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 30c | 95.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 92.43$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 68c | 83.5$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 25c | 80.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 69c | 77.7$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 70.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed0…25afbacked Yes | 45c | 66.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 69c | 65.46$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec5…0006backed Yes | 31c | 64.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 69c | 60.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 51.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 50.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 32c | 49.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 29c | 47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 31c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…7839backed Yes | 29c | 41.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 26c | 41.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 31c | 35.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 56c | 34.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…8cbbbacked Yes | 34c | 33.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 46c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 46c | 31.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 69c | 29.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 76c | 26.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 77c | 24.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 55c | 24.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 23.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb232…771dbacked Yes | 47c | 23.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 69c | 21.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 69c | 20.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on May 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or higher on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.