NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa58cae71154bcdc8262e7d23cddeb6619caed17accf7b11e4717b5f4e3a0dca0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lightningof Lightning, Flames
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ae7…cf61backed Flames | 62c | 1,047$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 130 | 60%78 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Flames | 60c | 520$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Lightning | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Lightning | 38c | 470$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.7 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Lightning | 41c | 367$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.53 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 39c | 283.33$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Flames | 63c | 142.86$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Lightning | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 224 | 43.3%97 W · 127 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Lightning | 40c | 87.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Flames | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Lightning | 41c | 68.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 799 | 56.1%448 W · 351 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Lightning | 37c | 42.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Lightning | 37c | 41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Lightning | 37c | 35.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 583 | 46.5%271 W · 312 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c04…a524backed Lightning | 41c | 24.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Flames vs. LightningLightning won
- Flames vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.