TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Flames vs. Lightning

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lightningof Flames, Lightning
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$287,251
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$286,679

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $287,251 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 641 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc3c3…eec8backed Lightning64c40,000$25,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,40042552.2%222 W · 203 L+25.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Flames36c34,569$12,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,444.677850%39 W · 39 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Flames0c14,220$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.122504.8%12 W · 238 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+159.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x49dd…2a32backed Flames0c11,370$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.376163.9%39 W · 22 L+8.1wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+20.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xef54…d1eebacked Flames38c11,084$4,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,212.1117749.2%87 W · 90 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x38c7…e288backed Lightning74c9,900$7,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5741100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3311…02e8backed Flames26c9,900$2,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,57410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a89…2f26backed Flames37c8,995$3,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,327.9970547.7%336 W · 369 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Lightning63c6,416$4,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,365.81,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ce2…e868backed Flames38c5,323$2,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,022.876055%33 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56c6…f706backed Lightning62c5,032$3,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,912.2415954.1%86 W · 73 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Flames0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1054418%98 W · 446 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Flames38c4,279$1,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,626.015446.3%25 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Lightning62c4,000$2,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,52089547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Flames37c3,284$1,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,214.2830152.5%158 W · 143 L+17.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Flames0c3,280$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.982043%353 W · 467 L-1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f32…1d64backed Lightning63c3,175$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,174.61861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Flames37c3,000$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.9813333.1%44 W · 89 L-11.9wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-22%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Flames37c2,827$1,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.341,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Lightning62c2,600$1,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98868449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08a4…5c3fbacked Lightning62c2,364$1,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.3130551.5%157 W · 148 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Flames8c2,160$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.7861848.1%297 W · 321 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1f7…c4e5backed Lightning63c2,045$1,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$756.657459.5%44 W · 30 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Flames36c2,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72030552.5%160 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Lightning63c2,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74097651.6%504 W · 472 L-3.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Flames12c1,891$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.9227143.5%118 W · 153 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Lightning62c1,705$1,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.881,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Lightning62c1,700$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.9985250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Flames38c1,600$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60824845.2%112 W · 136 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Lightning62c1,596$996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.9754047.6%257 W · 283 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f11…ce9fbacked Flames39c1,500$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.973850%19 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Flames36c1,500$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.9536038.6%139 W · 221 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Lightning62c1,426$884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.8875155.8%419 W · 332 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f2d…2332backed Flames38c1,370$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9843…45dcbacked Lightning63c1,370$863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Flames36c1,228$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.1751044.5%227 W · 283 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Flames38c1,168$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.9738844.6%173 W · 215 L-17.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Lightning63c1,136$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.8822946.3%106 W · 123 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning61c1,112$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.841,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Flames36c1,099$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.62,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9807…157bbacked Flames38c1,050$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39920144.8%90 W · 111 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Flames1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe544…ab18backed Flames37c1,000$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3656162.3%38 W · 23 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Lightning63c959.99$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.227150.2%136 W · 135 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Flames32c934.31$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.891,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Lightning63c920.07$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.4357453.8%309 W · 265 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…5513backed Flames37c899.98$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.99425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb313…f17bbacked Lightning59c847.27$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.382100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+54.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x882e…e757backed Flames37c826.2$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.694139%16 W · 25 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c0a…4912backed Flames41c804$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.64540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Lightning62c800$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30470249%344 W · 358 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Lightning62c645$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.11,63650.4%825 W · 811 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x438f…28fabacked Lightning63c573.02$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.021560%9 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f1…4596backed Flames38c572.87$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.691560%9 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+33.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e0d…285dbacked Flames38c525.58$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Lightning63c506.9$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.021,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ab…d681backed Lightning63c500$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18512548%60 W · 65 L-15.6wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-21.2%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Lightning63c500$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18531257.4%179 W · 133 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Flames37c500$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18575946.6%354 W · 405 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe533…b5d7backed Lightning63c500$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1851957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Lightning62c500$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19026955.8%150 W · 119 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6274…54debacked Flames37c500$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick46cpaid-48.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x467e…4343backed Lightning70c490$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1472646.2%12 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x44ff…406bbacked Flames37c490$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.31118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.7wins-0.34per pick52cpaid-69.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6517…42f1backed Flames37c490$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.31050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc411…422fbacked Lightning63c490$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.31844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2605…6149backed Flames35c490$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.51637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-27.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8cfd…5c8dbacked Flames36c490$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.41338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc97d…3b99backed Flames35c490$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.51656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbb6…15d8backed Lightning63c490$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.31735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-33.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x70cf…a33bbacked Lightning64c490$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.41957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2c8…3fc5backed Lightning64c490$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.41747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbecb…4abbbacked Lightning65c490$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.51957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed62…10a5backed Flames37c490$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.31145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff6…7b6bbacked Lightning65c490$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.51656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2db3…9f61backed Flames36c490$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.41741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f4c…9f73backed Lightning63c490$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.31136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-35.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x523e…3c8cbacked Lightning63c490$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.31656.3%9 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a73…cb28backed Flames36c490$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.41637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d76…920abacked Flames37c490$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.31546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8292…2cd8backed Flames37c490$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.31241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9f3…5ef1backed Lightning63c490$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.31855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf431…669cbacked Lightning64c490$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.41764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+27.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x025d…0fe2backed Flames37c480$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.61450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b1d…b314backed Flames36c480$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.81250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+16.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x00d8…701ebacked Lightning63c480$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.61442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52ed…ce16backed Flames35c480$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1681233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x81a0…ca21backed Lightning65c480$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1682035%7 W · 13 L-3.2wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-31.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8150…e556backed Flames36c480$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.81346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc85e…fad7backed Flames36c480$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.81553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b2a…1ad9backed Flames37c480$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.61145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37a7…41f1backed Lightning64c480$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.81850%9 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca57…7dcfbacked Lightning64c480$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.81662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+17.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x032d…584abacked Lightning63c480$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.61258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+20.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf3a…79cebacked Flames37c480$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.61361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+25.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfae1…e1a7backed Lightning63c480$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.61747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7079…2deabacked Lightning64c480$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.81145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba3c…23f5backed Flames36c480$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.81520%3 W · 12 L-4.7wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-62.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xb2dc…dbd9backed Lightning64c480$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.81827.8%5 W · 13 L-5.0wins-0.28per pick56cpaid-54.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x2aaf…778abacked Lightning64c470$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.21850%9 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.