Asian League · resolved market
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. FC Tōkyō: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa59d9dcb46bc6ecd3b16cf49dd87747bd23fb819a2f2e7d4c2f0f7549955a192
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bec…07a8backed Yes | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 42c | 452.7$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.63 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa410…f61fbacked Yes | 58c | 317.79$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.47 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +4.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…8e53backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Yes | 57c | 163.17$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…375cbacked No | 13c | 121.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 423 | 51.3%217 W · 206 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed No | 41c | 87.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed Yes | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31d6…b5c9backed Yes | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x663c…bb68backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1d…8986backed Yes | 58c | 46.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Yes | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 42c | 40.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce3…c36cbacked Yes | 59c | 36.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed No | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 42c | 32.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed No | 43c | 24.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. FC Tōkyō: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 0.5Over won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 2.5Over won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 3.5Over won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Tōkyō (-1.5)Cerezo Ōsaka won
- Spread: FC Tōkyō (-2.5)Cerezo Ōsaka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.