Asian League · resolved market
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f0e0919d842acf5f4c48eba3962b0b0ce830175aa49f417f53ba1963a96a8f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 76c | 2,115$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 32c | 1,635$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.71 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 62c | 1,029$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.06 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 24c | 627.45$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.86 | 81 | 19.8%16 W · 65 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 56c | 591.45$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.45 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ee…b517backed Over | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Over | 79c | 329.63$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.32 | 117 | 64.1%75 W · 42 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Under | 16c | 249.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4571…a952backed Under | 49c | 204.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 52c | 200.49$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.03 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x156e…cf6fbacked Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 57c | 199.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…3c43backed Over | 46c | 187.07$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.07 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 55c | 150$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 539 | 46.9%253 W · 286 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…375cbacked Under | 17c | 134.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 44c | 121.95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.31 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…01c6backed Under | 50c | 112$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2e…5b64backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 49c | 97.96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.96 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 181 | 38.7%70 W · 111 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 64c | 76.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 30c | 74.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.82 | 93 | 29%27 W · 66 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 114 | 33.3%38 W · 76 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Over | 23c | 65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c0…fad2backed Under | 17c | 64.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -7.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -36%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 30c | 47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 70c | 47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4e…2564backed Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d70…d0a6backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Under | 39c | 27.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 88 | 6.8%6 W · 82 L | -22.0wins | -0.25per pick | 32cpaid | -78%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Under | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -7.3wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked Over | 64c | 23.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 3.5this page
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. FC Tōkyō: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 0.5Over won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 2.5Over won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Tōkyō (-1.5)Cerezo Ōsaka won
- Spread: FC Tōkyō (-2.5)Cerezo Ōsaka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.