Asian League · resolved market
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43abecd8449c4e2476299bbdc4f8ab24ea1dcd84f4975ae204d8cea82081bacf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4939…9adebacked Under | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Under | 54c | 1,049$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.76 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -7.3wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Over | 45c | 1,000$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555 | 243 | 23%56 W · 187 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 58c | 981.9$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.09 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 50c | 618.74$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.37 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 50c | 509.39$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.7 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Under | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98a6…bc60backed Under | 50c | 241.8$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1853…9cd0backed Under | 50c | 201.69$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb2a…e923backed Under | 48c | 199.05$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.36 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 62c | 195$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.34 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x140e…cf85backed Under | 50c | 99.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 50c | 96.96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.48 | 405 | 50.6%205 W · 200 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 46c | 87.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 50c | 85.52$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.76 | 197 | 51.8%102 W · 95 L | +15.3wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 50c | 84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 50c | 84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fe…1471backed Under | 24c | 81.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 58c | 77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 375 | 59.2%222 W · 153 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Under | 50c | 61.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…6516backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 181 | 38.7%70 W · 111 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Over | 49c | 48.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x663c…bb68backed Under | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…f050backed Under | 50c | 33.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.3wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 58c | 33.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…7d46backed Over | 50c | 26.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 2.5this page
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. FC Tōkyō: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 0.5Over won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 3.5Over won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Tōkyō (-1.5)Cerezo Ōsaka won
- Spread: FC Tōkyō (-2.5)Cerezo Ōsaka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.