NHL · resolved market
AHL: Ontario Reign vs. Tucson Roadrunners
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5c1122925bd2e37ed79e62ddebd80edf36d106e873ee0b3969cebf94a0bc3d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tucson Roadrunnersof Ontario Reign, Tucson Roadrunners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bfb…cd1cbacked Tucson Roadrunners | 44c | 1,318$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Ontario Reign | 57c | 1,241$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.15 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Tucson Roadrunners | 42c | 1,138$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.14 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…dcb0backed Ontario Reign | 56c | 1,029$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…d8a4backed Tucson Roadrunners | 45c | 675$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.25 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Tucson Roadrunners | 43c | 417.77$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.13 | 105 | 40%42 W · 63 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdcc…e679backed Tucson Roadrunners | 44c | 406$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.36 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.44per pick | 41cpaid | +144%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…75a0backed Ontario Reign | 55c | 329.12$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.06 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Tucson Roadrunners | 43c | 295.03$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.17 | 519 | 49.5%257 W · 262 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec6…7babbacked Ontario Reign | 56c | 289$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7078…2210backed Ontario Reign | 56c | 283$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…dc5abacked Tucson Roadrunners | 44c | 261$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x123b…5398backed Ontario Reign | 56c | 181$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Ontario Reign | 58c | 172$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…c569backed Ontario Reign | 56c | 123$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Ontario Reign | 55c | 117$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Ontario Reign | 58c | 109$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf98…a5c3backed Ontario Reign | 57c | 103.54$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Ontario Reign | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Tucson Roadrunners | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 497 | 47.9%238 W · 259 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Ontario Reign | 57c | 93.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Ontario Reign | 57c | 92.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9c31backed Ontario Reign | 56c | 79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc916…5403backed Ontario Reign | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Ontario Reign | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Ontario Reign | 29c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…053ebacked Ontario Reign | 57c | 35.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Ontario Reign | 42c | 24.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Ontario Reign | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 222 | 55.9%124 W · 98 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Ontario Reign | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed Tucson Roadrunners | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 366 | 62%227 W · 139 L | +39.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.