MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5c9e40ce0883ace8141f5440fcefbc977531addf22e23adfe12d0b43b88b53a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof St. Louis Cardinals, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,087
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,087 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 30c | 8,638$2,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,592.34 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Kansas City Royals | 71c | 7,085$5,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,044.37 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed8…4388backed St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 4,053$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.61 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Kansas City Royals | 63c | 1,999$1,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.65 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Kansas City Royals | 64c | 1,392$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.56 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Kansas City Royals | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Kansas City Royals | 63c | 999.99$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Kansas City Royals | 65c | 635.97$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.59 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 619.3$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.14 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Kansas City Royals | 65c | 564.22$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.49 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 201.64$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.59 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked St. Louis Cardinals | 31c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 60.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 57.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Kansas City Royals | 63c | 54.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 43.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Kansas City Royals | 63c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Kansas City Royals | 65c | 28.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Kansas City Royals | 65c | 28.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Kansas City Royals | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Kansas City Royals | 68c | 17.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis CardinalsKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.