MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03c7881f6185bf4be3293d3c98dc20c10771c2fabd998007a8090c6f24863a67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 44c | 29,180$12,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,347.39 | 444 | 46.8%208 W · 236 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 56c | 22,103$12,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,377.04 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 56c | 1,864$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.87 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 43c | 1,666$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.55 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 56c | 1,500$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.99 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 56c | 921.33$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.94 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 44c | 796$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.76 | 274 | 49.3%135 W · 139 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 56c | 600$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Over | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…0febbacked Over | 56c | 483.14$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.56 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 477.14$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.4 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 56c | 453.49$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.95 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 57c | 431.16$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.76 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 56c | 400$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 44c | 398$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.18 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 57c | 192.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 44c | 114$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Under | 44c | 97.16$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.41 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 30c | 85.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Over | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d5…9622backed Over | 57c | 31.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 49c | 22.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 50c | 21.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 592 | 52.7%312 W · 280 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis CardinalsKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.