Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa616bce25ace55b32ca875f3af60a4aa1fcf37dc3ca952ced03eeaa63879e628
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,903
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,903 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa877…f204backed Yes | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +17.9wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 48c | 457.5$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73f1…dde5backed Yes | 46c | 431.36$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.76 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…ee5dbacked Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked Yes | 73c | 220$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.6 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 18c | 216.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d9…3d0cbacked Yes | 48c | 216$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x120b…f84fbacked No | 54c | 201$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…fc3fbacked No | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde32…700cbacked Yes | 65c | 171.03$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.87 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29fc…e36cbacked Yes | 65c | 117$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18d7…f54bbacked Yes | 64c | 110$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc1…e943backed No | 36c | 110$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ea…c0f1backed No | 35c | 88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fcc…a870backed Yes | 51c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…9964backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…1263backed No | 49c | 52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a01…7a30backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…666cbacked Yes | 49c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc683…ba48backed No | 51c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602b…aa59backed No | 54c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…774bbacked No | 54c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x382e…3443backed No | 54c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe10…98adbacked Yes | 46c | 47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…4635backed Yes | 46c | 47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511d…b032backed Yes | 62c | 43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…8edcbacked No | 42c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5e…b954backed No | 38c | 43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x462a…8b5cbacked Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0e…b1febacked No | 42c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…d743backed No | 35c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8a…641abacked Yes | 58c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc8…c48ebacked Yes | 65c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8422…d8b9backed No | 36c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…dfb0backed Yes | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc5…1de8backed Yes | 64c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4282…70b9backed Yes | 64c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…c41dbacked No | 36c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca2…2a8ebacked No | 36c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c66…9942backed No | 40c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x096d…78dabacked Yes | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffa0…f6bfbacked Yes | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec0…634bbacked No | 36c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcd…835bbacked No | 38c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1352…5d11backed Yes | 65c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8965…839dbacked No | 35c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe202…52babacked No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…026cbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…a100backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd7…b62dbacked No | 35c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4c…f2fdbacked Yes | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 73cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…04acbacked Yes | 62c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3914…51d7backed Yes | 54c | 24.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked Yes | 65c | 23.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6e…083ebacked Yes | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51c…6b2cbacked Yes | 58c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +179.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa918…fa22backed Yes | 60c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95ee…f1f1backed Yes | 67c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0295…6b29backed Yes | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on February 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.