Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on February 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x410b5ed650365f768e78b00663bc660d97030e932f95f4806dbac655d86a8687
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde32…700cbacked Yes | 21c | 2,528$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.96 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 16c | 2,356$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.96 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 23c | 2,179$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.4 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5350…cbc2backed Yes | 30c | 2,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked Yes | 1c | 1,008$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +191.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…026cbacked No | 78c | 828.75$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.4 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd25b…9f3dbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 42c | 455.78$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…ee5dbacked Yes | 37c | 406.88$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.24 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…0fb2backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 119 | 20.2%24 W · 95 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 74c | 235$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.08 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…fc3fbacked No | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 17c | 117.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 115.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5397…fcf7backed Yes | 40c | 96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eab…df8bbacked No | 60c | 96$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes | 19c | 93.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x807d…9189backed Yes | 52c | 90$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 18c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26ea…c0f1backed Yes | 29c | 78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…1263backed Yes | 29c | 74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f97…10afbacked No | 71c | 74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bb…8a25backed Yes | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0b…9803backed No | 74c | 68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 52c | 65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…5dc4backed No | 71c | 53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4012…8a36backed Yes | 29c | 53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee6…693abacked Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…9964backed Yes | 52c | 49.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 31c | 40.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba7…9b4dbacked No | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…031abacked No | 60c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccee…eb38backed Yes | 40c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6c…5a49backed Yes | 34c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5034…4160backed No | 66c | 35.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…dd4cbacked Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf305…e0adbacked Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…cf17backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 66cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe13…79e9backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f1…02bbbacked No | 56c | 28.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b30…10dcbacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc683…404cbacked No | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e255backed No | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5498…0346backed No | 66c | 23.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa691…dda6backed No | 71c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…9864backed No | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8404…2c77backed No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4686…5637backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc9…7870backed Yes | 48c | 20.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35f…210abacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x855a…678bbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…678abacked No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…e780backed No | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62ad…5200backed No | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on February 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on February 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.