Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa63b994e9dc8f3af4412f245e485163d04fac006bd77b0380384fd5dc519097e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,125
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,125 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 19c | 1,151$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.68 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 3c | 725.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 7c | 415.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.75 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 15c | 281.41$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.29 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 4c | 280.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.47 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 61c | 248.93$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.98 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 19c | 218.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.19 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 18c | 160.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.37 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 7c | 141.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.5 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 112.23$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 10c | 109.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.89 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…9b0cbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 20c | 79.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 75.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 29c | 71.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…7936backed Yes | 26c | 70.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 107 | 84.1%90 W · 17 L | +30.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +66%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 15c | 67.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.09 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 79c | 61.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 75c | 59.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xce22…5704backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 58c | 42.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 74c | 25.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d8…555fbacked Yes | 70c | 19.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed No | 65c | 17.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 65c | 16.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…66cdbacked No | 70c | 14.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 61°F or below on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.