Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa65a02c81c7bcbd1d6a3bdff4745eb8ad935d010586ed104cec2a53209233b8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa439…9ed6backed Yes | 1c | 1,036$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadba…b0afbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 51c | 977.5$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.73 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 464.48$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 458.21$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69cc…2e44backed No | 33c | 326.21$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.09 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 25c | 321.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.05 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 51c | 293.51$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.12 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 14c | 219.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.5 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 79c | 218.99$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 24c | 207.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14fa…73f0backed No | 28c | 180.74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +44%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 12c | 178.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 46c | 165.52$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.63 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb378…e4c0backed No | 11c | 164$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.96 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 77c | 158.84$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.63 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 22c | 151.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.95 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 22c | 149.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 20c | 149.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 76c | 146.75$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.14 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a8…0cecbacked No | 35c | 133.83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 75c | 129.68$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 75c | 124.79$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 24c | 123.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f2…4fc0backed Yes | 12c | 123$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 114.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 70c | 112.97$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.53 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 24c | 109.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.91 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked Yes | 13c | 103.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 99.74$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 99.29$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 21c | 99.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.77 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 47c | 97.48$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 50c | 96.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.22 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 75c | 85.88$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed Yes | 52c | 69.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 18c | 69.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 44c | 67.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed No | 40c | 63.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked No | 28c | 63.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.52 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 78c | 61.59$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b3…dc40backed No | 19c | 61.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 25c | 60.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 59.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 25c | 59.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5e…aa95backed Yes | 18c | 56.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa479…ef6bbacked Yes | 26c | 50.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 75c | 48.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 69c | 47.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 40.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c71…431fbacked Yes | 77c | 38.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 77c | 38.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…922ebacked No | 79c | 37.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 74c | 36.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed No | 55c | 34.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 46c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…8c8bbacked Yes | 53c | 29.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcc…788cbacked No | 77c | 29.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…ad19backed No | 78c | 29.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 67c | 27.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 27.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 74c | 25.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…669ebacked Yes | 62c | 24.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 66 | 10.6%7 W · 59 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5728…d2b2backed Yes | 61c | 24.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 67c | 24.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 76c | 23.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed No | 46c | 22.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…2afcbacked No | 78c | 21.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed No | 76c | 21.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 73c | 20.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked No | 63c | 19.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 80c | 19.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 18.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 78c | 16.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 76c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed Yes | 68c | 14.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 69c | 14.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 61°F or below on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.